NCAA men’s lacrosse quarterfinal picks: College lacrosse best bets for Duke vs. Maryland

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 7 Maryland

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

While I think Notre Dame will ultimately claim its second consecutive championship, I recommended betting the Duke Blue Devils to win it all at +500 at the start of the tournament based on their path.

The last time these teams faced each other was 2021, and Maryland defeated Duke in the semifinals, 14-5. However, this time around I think it will be the Blue Devils who come away with a lopsided win.

The Terps had a great opening round win against Princeton, but that was an extremely favorable matchup for them. Much like in its regular season meeting, Maryland dominated the possession battle as Luke Wierman won 76.9% of his faceoffs. He won’t enjoy the same level off success against Duke’s Jake Naso.

Another big question is if Maryland’s offense can produce against a Duke defense that ranks second in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations. Maryland’s offense played excellent last weekend and took advantage of transition opportunities. Yet, if Duke prevents goals on fast breaks, can we trust this 31st-ranked offense in terms of efficiency to deliver?

I don’t believe we can. A double-digit performance might be hard to come by for this offense Saturday

Additionally, while Maryland’s defense has been excellent this season with Logan McNaney back in net, it will face a Duke offense that is finally hitting its stride. Duke has unveiled numerous different offensive sets this past few weeks, using former starting attackman Andrew McAdorey effectively as an invert option and getting Brennan O’Neill more opportunities sweeping above the cage. Josh Zawada operated predominately from behind the net earlier in the season, but is getting more chances as passer and shooter above the cage. Ultimately, I think it will be too much for the Terps to handle and could see the Blue Devils picking them apart much like Penn State did in the Big Ten semifinals.

While Maryland’s top defender Ajax Zappitello could limit O’Neill as a goal-scorer, the big lefty has displayed his skills as a passer more in recent games and should be able to still make a significant impact in this game. Whether Maryland decides to leave Zappitello on an island with O’Neill or slide early, I think O’Neill will be able to generate offense one way or another.

Bet Duke -3 at -120 on DraftKings.

I also recommend betting Maryland's Braden Erksa to stay under his shots on goal prop of 3.5. Erksa has stayed under this mark in half his games this season, including all but two games against defenses that rank in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Lacrosse Reference. If Maryland runs him from the midfield like last game, he could see fewer touches. If he starts on attack again, he could draw a matchup with top Duke defender Kenny Brower. Ultimately, I think Erksa could struggle to get quality shots on cage Saturday.

Bet Erksa to stay under 3.5 shots on goal at -105 on DraftKings.

Picks: Duke -3 (-120 at DraftKings) | Braden Erksa Under 3.5 SOG (-105)