Highlights, lowlights and what I think I think...
Welcome back to the blog, I know it has been a while but i'm back and planning to write a lot so stay tuned. First of all, the season is over for 28 of the 32 teams in the National Football League, with those four being the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and Pittsburgh Steelers. With that being said, I will address the Jacksonville Jaguars, their strengths, their weaknesses and what needs to be done this off-season to make this team a contender. Don't worry, I will address the playoffs as well.
The Jaguars went 8-8 this season, not exactly what we expected after being 8-5 with three games remaining. What's done is done, so lets figure out why it happened. The secondary was obviously a major problem. In the final three games of the year, the Jaguars secondary didn't give up a ton of yards, but thats because the run defense failed. However, the Jaguars allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66 percent of their passes for 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Jaguars run defense collapsed the last three weeks as well, more so than the pass defense. Over the last three games, opposing teams averaged over 160 yards rushing per game. That will never work in this league. Compare that to the Steelers who have given up an average of 62 yards per game, over the entire season. Finally, the Jaguars gave up 6 turnovers during the final three games. If those three things occur, you will not win very many games.
So, those stats would beg the question, 'How do we fix it?" Well, Jack Del Rio isn't going anywhere just yet and I don't believe that he should. Blowing up the coaching staff would do more damage than good, I believe, and many players have expressed their desire to continue playing for Del Rio, which would lead me to believe the guys have bought into the system. With that being said, this team probably over-achieved this year, although we all would have liked to see them take the division crown, it was none of our expectations that they would have even been in that situation at the start of the year.
However, that is not to say the Jaguars don't have problems they need to fix, they have plenty. Lets go down the list of all the areas or positions that need to be addressed through free agency and the draft.
Defensive End - We'll start on the line and work our way back. Aaron Kampman is attempting a second straight recovery from knee surgery and there is no way to know how successful that will be. If Kampman comes back healthy and strong great, there is still a pressing need on the end. Jeremy Mincey came on during the middle of the season and ended up leading the Jaguars in sacks. However, despite doubling their sack-total from a year ago, the Jaguars were still 2nd to last in sacks this season.
Linebacker - Daryl Smith is absolutely a machine, he had a good year and once again led the Jaguars in Tackles. However, this position needs a major upgrade. Justin Durant was injured for much of the year, but when he was playing, he only showed he isn't the linebacker we all thought he was. He never developed, never came into his own, and to be quite honest, he just isn't very good. He lacks coverage skills, pass-rush skills and is an average tackler at best. Kirk Morrison was the vocal leader on defense and he had a year indicative of what we traded for him, a fourth round pick. That's not good enough. Morrison's contract expires this off-season and while I do expect the Jaguars to address this position heavily by bringing in plenty of talent, I also expect Morrison to be back in a Jaguars uniform next season. He knows competition is forth-coming and I believe it will bring out a better player.
Cornerback - Contrary to popular belief, Rashean Mathis did not have a horrible year, he didn't have a great year either, by a long shot. However, Rashean Mathis is exactly what he was drafted and developed to be and thats a "Cover Corner". He is not a player you can expect a bunch of run-support from, nor is he going to lead the team in tackles. Mathis made a few mistakes this year and indications are he has recognized that and I expect him to rededicate himself this off-season. Derek Cox had a horrible start to the year that saw him being benched and even deactivated for several games. He has shown flashes of greatness and he led the team in interceptions this year. He has shown ball-hawking abilities, but his footwork has not improved much and he still isn't reading the offense the way he should. This position will be upgraded during the off-season, I don't think the Jaguars will go after a player the caliber of a starter, but I do expect some competitive talent to come in and push for a spot and provide depth and options.
Safety - This was probably the biggest void in the Jaguars defense, or team for that matter, this entire season. Big play after big play, the two safeties, Don Carey and Courtney Greene would just continue to misread the offense. However, we need to cut them some slack. Courtney Greene was in his second season and first year of starting. Don Carey was a corner, playing in virtually his rookie season (Carey missed his rookie season due to injury). Carey was learning the position on the fly and that's obviously not an easy thing to do. However, the horrible angles and poor tackling that both of these guys showed is plenty of reason for concern. I expect the Jaguars to draft heavily for the defensive backfield as they clearly have numerous holes to fill. Don't be surprised if a defensive back comes to Jacksonville with the 16th pick of the draft.
That about covers it for the defense. The defensive line seems to be in pretty good shape, they need some help at the end spot and hopefully Kampman recovers. But the Jaguars have one of the leagues youngest and 'up-and-coming' tackle tandems in Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton. Add in D' Anthony Smith who was lost to injury before his rookie season began and some of the young DE's and the line seems to be in pretty good shape. The rest of the defense, not so much.
Now for the offense:
Quarterback - I'll make this short and sweet...David Garrard is not a bad quarterback and he is by no stretch of the imagination an 'Elite' quarterback. The Jaguars can win with him and they realize this, which is why I don't expect a quarterback to be selected in the first round, unless a guy falls to them that they just can't pass on. David has probably reached his plateau, but if he can work on the mental mistakes, i.e. Overtime interception against Washington, he can improve his game enough to win. The Jaguars will draft a quarterback this off-season and there will be plenty of competition, I just don't think it is their number one priority this off-season.
Center- It appears the two tackles are set with the rise and development of draftees Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. Obviously Britton had an injury to deal with this season, but expect improvement next season with more experience under his belt. Recently Andy Heck, the Jaguars Offensive Line coach, expressed his excitement and confidence in his offensive line. He anticipates great things. While, I do see plenty of room for enthusiasm with all of the young talent, one position that isn't so young is Center. Brad Meester will turn 34 before training camp ever begins. Entering his 12th season in the league, it's time for someone to come in to succeed him at Center. There's talk about Uche Nwaneri taking over that role, leaving a vacant guard spot...Whatever the plan is, the offensive line is going to need another addition or two whether it be late in the draft or through free agency.
Wide Receiver - Mike Thomas clearly has emerged as a legitimate receiver for the Jaguars, however, Mike Sims-Walker has only provided more doubts. He dropped far too many passes this season and seemed to disappear in many games. I believe the Jaguars like what they have in Jason Hill and expect him to return. Jarret Dilliard will also return from an injury. I expect some more talent to be added, possibly a bigger wide receiver, more of a 'Possession' type of guy.
Clearly the Jaguars need a little more help, but I believe they have a great young nucleus of players from which to build around. Guys like Terrance Knighton, Tyson Alualu, Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings, Mike Thomas. Those are all young, talented and quality players. With another solid year of drafting and smart free agent acquisitions, the Jaguars can really be a solid contender next season.
I don't believe the Jaguars should go after a guy like Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, the price is far too high and acquiring older players is not the formula for sustained success. Asomugha will be 30 at the start of next season, and drafting quality young guys is much more successful, not to mention cheaper. Asomugha is expected to fetch around 15 million per year, which is astronomical for any player, let alone a defensive back. I expect the Jaguars to be a little more practical and target free agents like Eric Weddle, Ike Taylor, etc... Quality guys who aren't too old and won't command a ton of money. I believe that is the right way to build a team, draft quality players, develop them, and add sparingly through free agency. If the Jaguars continue hitting on their draft picks, they won't have as many needs as they do now.
Finally, its that time of the year, Play-off time. This weekend is Championship weekend with the AFC and NFC Championship games being played. In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers head to Chicago to face the Bears in another battle of the 'Oldest Rivalry in Football.' The Bears are playing at a high level and their defense is playing great team defense. However, my Preseason picks for the SuperBowl were the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. I still have a shot with the Packers, so I will still with them. They have the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now, Aaron Rodgers and he is on a mission. Add in Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, who are both playing absolutely lights out, and I envision the Packers playing Dallas on February 6th.
In the AFC Championship game, the New York Jets (and all of their baggage) travel to Pittsburgh to face-off with the Steelers, whom they have already beaten this year. The Jets are playing great defense, which you come to expect from a Rex Ryan coached team and Mark Sanchez is protecting the football. However, I expect Troy Polamalu to extract revenge on the Jets, since he missed his opportunity to earlier this season due to an injury. I believe the Steelers will force the Jets to turn the ball over and 'Big Ben' is clearly a great quarterback, I mean, the man has two Superbowl rings and he is only 28 years old.
With my predictions, I see the Pittsburgh Steelers battling the Green Bay Packers, which would be a great match-up in my opinion, in Superbowl 45 in Dallas, Texas.
That's all i've got for now, I truly hope you enjoyed reading this and I have brought some enlightenment to you. Thank you again and if anyone has any questions or thoughts they would like to share, please shoot em at me: morgzs@students.fscj.edu is my email.
Also, follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/zachmo904
Thanks.
